CBRE Hotels Raises Outlook for Second Half of 2022, Expects Continued Growth in 2023

CBRE is elevating its forecast for lodge efficiency in Denver and nationally on the heels of business good points in Q2 2022 and the expectation of barely constructive GDP progress in 2023.

In Denver, CBRE revised its forecast for 2022 to a achieve in income per accessible room (RevPAR) of 33.4 p.c, up from the earlier projection of 20.8 p.c. The revision is based on the anticipated common each day charge (ADR) exceeding pre-pandemic ranges this yr in Denver, reaching $136.83 (in comparison with $136.68 in 2019). It additionally assumes a 17.9 p.c improve in demand, up from the earlier forecast issued in Could 2022 that confirmed an 11.1 p.c achieve.

CBRE has additionally raised its forecast for Denver lodge occupancy. In Could, the projection was for occupancy to rise 7.7 p.c in 2022, hitting 63.3 p.c. Per the brand new forecast, occupancy is anticipated to rise 14.2 p.c this yr, reaching 67.1 occupancy in Denver.

“The advance in Denver’s forecast is basically attributable to a 30 p.c improve in home and worldwide passenger journey at Denver Worldwide Airport. That is an indicator that leisure and company journey to Denver proceed to strengthen. Downtown Denver has the most important provide of upper-priced inns and at the moment leads the bigger metropolitan space in RevPAR good points,” stated Zachary Alm, vice chairman with CBRE’s Valuation & Advisory Providers in Colorado.

Waiting for 2023, CBRE tasks occupancy, ADR, RevPAR and demand to proceed to rise, albeit at a slower tempo than 2022. Occupancy is anticipated to extend 3.8 p.c (reaching 69.7 p.c), ADR to rise 4.5 p.c, RevPAR to extend 8.4 p.c, and demand to enhance 5.0 p.c.

Nationally, U.S. lodge business efficiency was stronger than anticipated in Q2 regardless of a decline in GDP and the best inflation in additional than 40 years. Power within the quarter was the results of continued enhancements in group enterprise, inbound worldwide journey, and what might have been a peak in leisure journey this cycle.

CBRE’s baseline-scenario forecasts don’t ponder a global battle, a pervasive recession, or a extra acute COVID variant. CBRE additionally produces forecasts based mostly on upside and draw back situations.

“As we progress by means of the third quarter, it’s value noting that the brisk tempo of demand restoration has begun to gradual. We’re seeing a pullback in ADRs in choose record-setting markets,” stated Rachael Rothman, CBRE’s head of lodge analysis & knowledge analytics. “Regardless of the slowing tempo of progress, we count on the continued restoration in journey demand to be pushed by incremental group and inbound worldwide journey, adopted by a modest uptick in transient enterprise.”

Inflation continues to bolster top-line progress, however it is usually a headwind to margin growth given rising wages, utilities, meals and beverage prices, insurance coverage and capital expenditure (CapEx) will increase. Traditionally, luxurious inns have had the best capacity to extend room charges to offset inflation.

Long term, muted provide progress will bolster top-line progress. Excessive development materials costs, together with lumber, metal and labor, make the event of recent tasks too costly in some circumstances. CBRE forecasts that the nationwide lodge provide will improve at a 1.1 p.c compound annual progress charge over the subsequent 5 years, under the business’s 1.8 p.c long-term historic common.